What was decided, and what went wrong
One shared record for the whole org, only ever added to. A decision is written down as it was made — nobody edits it later to look better. When something fails it is written down too, along with the check that was added so it does not happen twice.
What is in the record
- 10 checks added after a failure
- 8 failures written down
- 3 decisions taken
- 1 cost records
- 1 policy changes
Failures, checks, costs and policies record what happened, so they carry no forecast. Anything that does carry one has to name a range, a way to measure it and a date, or it is refused at write time.
The record itself
Newest first. Click any entry to see the full detail.
23 rows
Second instance of 20260828-002, different path. run-phase-11.sh redirected TELEMETRY_STATE but not VAULT_LOCAL; voice-gate-guard.sh resolves the Bridge queue from vault.md independently, so two TEST denials landed in the LIVE pending queue reading as real asks waiting on a human, one of them an ad spend.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromfound at deploy when the vault was committed; removed in AI-HQ a1bd349; guard added to voice-gate-guard.sh and asserted in run-phase-11.shthe line exactly as it is stored20260828-004 | 2026-08-28 | nightcrawler | scar | vault-remote-leak | Second instance of 20260828-002, different path. run-phase-11.sh redirected TELEMETRY_STATE but not VAULT_LOCAL; voice-gate-guard.sh resolves the Bridge queue from vault.md independently, so two TEST denials landed in the LIVE pending queue reading as real asks waiting on a human, one of them an ad spend. | - | - | - | - | - | - | found at deploy when the vault was committed; removed in AI-HQ a1bd349; guard added to voice-gate-guard.sh and asserted in run-phase-11.shIsolating a local path does not isolate a remote. Any write path that resolves a destination from config must honour a local override on BOTH halves, or refuse to use the configured destination at all. Redirecting the local path means not the real target.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260828-002; enforced in scripts/vault-write.sh REDIRECTED guardthe line exactly as it is stored20260828-003 | 2026-08-28 | nightcrawler | guard | vault-remote-leak | Isolating a local path does not isolate a remote. Any write path that resolves a destination from config must honour a local override on BOTH halves, or refuse to use the configured destination at all. Redirecting the local path means not the real target. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260828-002; enforced in scripts/vault-write.sh REDIRECTED guardA test set VAULT_LOCAL to a temp directory believing that isolated it. vault-write.sh resolves the REMOTE from vault.md independently of VAULT_LOCAL, so it git-init'd the temp dir, adopted the real remote, and pushed two fixtures carrying FABRICATED Finanshels runway figures into the company vault, addressed to the board.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromdiscovered when a later push was rejected non-fast-forward; fixtures removed in AI-HQ commit 6279b6ethe line exactly as it is stored20260828-002 | 2026-08-28 | nightcrawler | scar | vault-remote-leak | A test set VAULT_LOCAL to a temp directory believing that isolated it. vault-write.sh resolves the REMOTE from vault.md independently of VAULT_LOCAL, so it git-init'd the temp dir, adopted the real remote, and pushed two fixtures carrying FABRICATED Finanshels runway figures into the company vault, addressed to the board. | - | - | - | - | - | - | discovered when a later push was rejected non-fast-forward; fixtures removed in AI-HQ commit 6279b6eFourteen legacy mode-local ledgers are superseded by this single append-only canon. Three carried content and were migrated; eleven were absent.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromcanon/MIGRATION.md, sweep run 2026-08-28the line exactly as it is stored20260828-001 | 2026-08-28 | the-ancient-one | policy | canon-consolidation | Fourteen legacy mode-local ledgers are superseded by this single append-only canon. Three carried content and were migrated; eleven were absent. | - | - | - | - | - | - | canon/MIGRATION.md, sweep run 2026-08-28Price a spend gate before asking for approval. State the estimate in the same breath as the ask. An unstated ~$0.50 cost carried the weight of a much larger fear.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 7the line exactly as it is stored20260821-010 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | price-the-gate | Price a spend gate before asking for approval. State the estimate in the same breath as the ask. An unstated ~$0.50 cost carried the weight of a much larger fear. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 7Verify the user's premise against data, then verify your own measurement. A naive median contradicted the user and was itself contaminated by 6 canned deflection strings; only the raw message bodies settled it. Both the report and the metric can be partly wrong.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 5the line exactly as it is stored20260821-009 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | premise-and-measurement | Verify the user's premise against data, then verify your own measurement. A naive median contradicted the user and was itself contaminated by 6 canned deflection strings; only the raw message bodies settled it. Both the report and the metric can be partly wrong. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 5A falsifier must name the CLASS of finding that would overturn a call, never enumerate file locations. A path-enumerating falsifier let a real defect through on a technicality.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 4the line exactly as it is stored20260821-008 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | falsifier-quality | A falsifier must name the CLASS of finding that would overturn a call, never enumerate file locations. A path-enumerating falsifier let a real defect through on a technicality. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 4Rank plumbing above craft when predicting a root cause. Predict the boring mechanism first.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260821-006the line exactly as it is stored20260821-007 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | interesting-mechanism-bias | Rank plumbing above craft when predicting a root cause. Predict the boring mechanism first. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260821-006All three commander predictions anchored on the most interesting mechanism (citation gate, reply suppression, request-construction defect) while every real cause was plumbing: a routing id, a discarded error string. Recorded outcome across the mission: 3 hits, 2 misses, 2 partials, 1 unscorable.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 3the line exactly as it is stored20260821-006 | 2026-08-21 | nick-fury | scar | interesting-mechanism-bias | All three commander predictions anchored on the most interesting mechanism (citation gate, reply suppression, request-construction defect) while every real cause was plumbing: a routing id, a discarded error string. Recorded outcome across the mission: 3 hits, 2 misses, 2 partials, 1 unscorable. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 3The user's working tree is off-limits entirely — never stash it, never clean it, never assume uncommitted changes belong to the run. Brief this to every builder, not just for specific files.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260821-004the line exactly as it is stored20260821-005 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | user-worktree-stash | The user's working tree is off-limits entirely — never stash it, never clean it, never assume uncommitted changes belong to the run. Brief this to every builder, not just for specific files. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260821-004A builder stashed the user's unrelated uncommitted work in order to get isolation.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 2the line exactly as it is stored20260821-004 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | scar | user-worktree-stash | A builder stashed the user's unrelated uncommitted work in order to get isolation. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 2Every parallel builder receives an absolute unique path AND an explicit file-ownership contract at dispatch. Never a conventional name chosen by the builder.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260821-002the line exactly as it is stored20260821-003 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | guard | worktree-collision | Every parallel builder receives an absolute unique path AND an explicit file-ownership contract at dispatch. Never a conventional name chosen by the builder. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260821-002Two parallel builders independently chose the same conventional worktree directory name; the second reverted the first's work as contamination. The commander then misdiagnosed it as fabrication and said so to the user before reading the other builder's report.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from halatax LESSON 1the line exactly as it is stored20260821-002 | 2026-08-21 | nightcrawler | scar | worktree-collision | Two parallel builders independently chose the same conventional worktree directory name; the second reverted the first's work as contamination. The commander then misdiagnosed it as fabrication and said so to the user before reading the other builder's report. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from halatax LESSON 1HalaTax WA agent reached launch-ready conditional: eval 28/28 green at 7bddf69, promotion ask filed, NOT promoted. First mission with no degraded phase.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md halatax-launch-readythe line exactly as it is stored20260821-001 | 2026-08-21 | nick-fury | decision | halatax-launch-ready | HalaTax WA agent reached launch-ready conditional: eval 28/28 green at 7bddf69, promotion ask filed, NOT promoted. First mission with no degraded phase. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md halatax-launch-readyVerify artifact paths on disk at checkpoint time AND again at resume before reporting any phase complete.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260813-008; confirmed load-bearing by halatax LESSON 6the line exactly as it is stored20260813-009 | 2026-08-13 | nightcrawler | guard | phantom-artifacts | Verify artifact paths on disk at checkpoint time AND again at resume before reporting any phase complete. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260813-008; confirmed load-bearing by halatax LESSON 6Two phases were marked complete against files that were not on disk. The mission record said done; the filesystem said absent.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md meridian LESSON 2the line exactly as it is stored20260813-008 | 2026-08-13 | nightcrawler | scar | phantom-artifacts | Two phases were marked complete against files that were not on disk. The mission record said done; the filesystem said absent. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md meridian LESSON 2Detect the installed roster before planning, not before dispatching. A plan with a majority of degraded phases is reported as an install recommendation first and a mission plan second.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260813-006, command-ledger LESSONthe line exactly as it is stored20260813-007 | 2026-08-13 | nightcrawler | guard | roster-detection | Detect the installed roster before planning, not before dispatching. A plan with a majority of degraded phases is reported as an install recommendation first and a mission plan second. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260813-006, command-ledger LESSONMission planned 6 phases against a roster that was not installed; 4 of 6 phases ran degraded and the mission outcome was not met.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md meridian-market-entrythe line exactly as it is stored20260813-006 | 2026-08-13 | nick-fury | scar | meridian-market-entry | Mission planned 6 phases against a roster that was not installed; 4 of 6 phases ran degraded and the mission outcome was not met. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.captain-mode/command-ledger.md meridian-market-entryAny stdio server must be proven by a full handshake against clean, dirty, invalid-path and unknown-tool cases before it is called delivered. Review does not substitute for execution.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came fromderived from 20260813-004the line exactly as it is stored20260813-005 | 2026-08-13 | nightcrawler | guard | mcp-async-flush | Any stdio server must be proven by a full handshake against clean, dirty, invalid-path and unknown-tool cases before it is called delivered. Review does not substitute for execution. | - | - | - | - | - | - | derived from 20260813-004An MCP server dropped its final response because rl.on('close') exited before pending async tool calls flushed. Found only by real execution, not by review.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.thor-mode/armory.md evidence linethe line exactly as it is stored20260813-004 | 2026-08-13 | nightcrawler | scar | mcp-async-flush | An MCP server dropped its final response because rl.on('close') exited before pending async tool calls flushed. Found only by real execution, not by review. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.thor-mode/armory.md evidence lineForged and delivered a git-status MCP server; verified by full stdio handshake against clean repo, dirty repo, non-repo path and unknown tool name.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.thor-mode/armory.md; artifact /tmp/forge/git-status-mcp.zip, install status deliveredthe line exactly as it is stored20260813-003 | 2026-08-13 | eitri | run-cost | git-status-mcp | Forged and delivered a git-status MCP server; verified by full stdio handshake against clean repo, dirty repo, non-repo path and unknown tool name. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.thor-mode/armory.md; artifact /tmp/forge/git-status-mcp.zip, install status deliveredSeven material facts were unknown at decision time: runway/burn, 6-month MRR curve and ICP share, e-invoicing mandate date for the SMB tier, account count and top-3 revenue concentration, existing capital and rights, headcount split, founder-led share of pipeline.
What was predicted—The range it committed to—How it gets settled—Settle by—Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md FACT GAPS AT DECISION TIMEthe line exactly as it is stored20260813-002 | 2026-08-13 | doctor-strange | decision | series-a-q4-vs-bootstrap | Seven material facts were unknown at decision time: runway/burn, 6-month MRR curve and ICP share, e-invoicing mandate date for the SMB tier, account count and top-3 revenue concentration, existing capital and rights, headcount split, founder-led share of pipeline. | - | - | - | - | - | - | migrated from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md FACT GAPS AT DECISION TIMEBootstrap Finanshels through the filing season and open the round Q1 2027 rather than Q4 2026.
What was predictedCash on hand stays above 9 months of net burn through the review date; no month by review beats the best month of the prior two quarters for new paid ICP accounts; no direct UAE/GCC SMB finance-ops competitor announces a round first; no single month before 2026-11-11 carries more working days on the other eight ventures than on Finanshels.The range it committed to9-14 months runway at review dateHow it gets settledmanual review of bank balance against 3-month trailing net burn, plus new-paid-ICP-account count by monthSettle by2026-11-11Outcome—Settled on—Where this came frommigrated from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md on 2026-08-28; original REVIEW STATUS pending, OUTCOME unrecorded; 4th criterion restored 2026-08-28 from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md after auditthe line exactly as it is stored20260813-001 | 2026-08-13 | doctor-strange | decision | series-a-q4-vs-bootstrap | Bootstrap Finanshels through the filing season and open the round Q1 2027 rather than Q4 2026. | Cash on hand stays above 9 months of net burn through the review date; no month by review beats the best month of the prior two quarters for new paid ICP accounts; no direct UAE/GCC SMB finance-ops competitor announces a round first; no single month before 2026-11-11 carries more working days on the other eight ventures than on Finanshels. | 9-14 months runway at review date | manual review of bank balance against 3-month trailing net burn, plus new-paid-ICP-account count by month | 2026-11-11 | - | - | migrated from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md on 2026-08-28; original REVIEW STATUS pending, OUTCOME unrecorded; 4th criterion restored 2026-08-28 from ~/.strange-mode/ledger.md after audit